Market Intelligence
Market, grid-reliability and macroeconomic context behind NFE's business case: outage studies, customer prospects, sector reports and economic outlooks.
- Opinions on what causes Power Outages
- AES: From Backup to Backbone: Community Microgrids to boost National Grid Reliability
- Potential Customers
- Macro outlook: shilling, rates and NFE (15 Oct 2026)
- Sawa Energy's Bellavista proposal (competitor benchmark)
- UMEME → UEDCL transition: market impact
- Tracking prospects in ERPNext CRM
Opinions on what causes Power Outages
We are sending out to this form to Ugandans in Urban areas to collect general opinions on what is causing power outages in Urban Communities
https://nextcloud.nearlyfreeenergy.com/apps/forms/s/SaPBZqB6DMetHXs6REMDwPTF
AES: From Backup to Backbone: Community Microgrids to boost National Grid Reliability
Africa has made significant progress expanding electricity access, yet a growing challenge is emerging: reliability. Millions of households and businesses remain connected to national grids that experience frequent outages, disrupting economic activity, education, healthcare, and daily life. In response, many consumers rely on costly and fragmented backup solutions such as diesel generators, batteries, and standalone solar systems.
This paper presents a community microgrid model for urban and peri-urban communities connected to unreliable national grids. Rather than replacing the utility grid, the model leverages shared solar and battery infrastructure to improve reliability, reduce costs, and strengthen local energy resilience. Communities begin by monitoring electricity consumption and outage patterns, then progressively deploy distributed energy resources (DERs) that evolve from backup systems into primary community energy infrastructure.
Drawing on lessons from a pilot deployment in Uganda, the paper examines the technical, economic, governance, and regulatory considerations required to implement community-owned microgrids at scale. Particular attention is given to cooperative ownership, affordability, grid integration, and digital platforms for managing DERs. The paper further explores how community microgrids can reduce peak demand on local transformers and substations, improving network performance and reliability for both participating and neighboring customers.
The paper argues that community microgrids can complement national electrification efforts while supporting utility networks. It also examines policy and regulatory frameworks that could enable wider deployment of community-scale microgrids and unlock private and community investment in local energy infrastructure.
Potential Customers
Prospects now live in ERPNext. Since 5 November 2026, NFE tracks prospective customers in the ERPNext CRM: Opportunities (the pipeline, by sales stage), Prospects (organisations) and Leads (people). Add and update prospects there; Aaron, Dansturn and Hillary have access. The table below is the list as it stood on 5 November 2026. Sezibwa Homes (an operating customer) and Arkright Estates were not carried over. How we use it: Tracking prospects in ERPNext CRM.
| Name | Size | Customer Contact | NFE Contact | Phase |
| Sezibwa Homes | 10 bungalows | Samuel Kisakye | Aaron Tushabe | Phase 1 operations |
| Pearl Marina - Bellavista Apartments | 360 apartments ( 1 MW) | Bellavista HOA | Aaron Tushabe | Proposal. Sawa Energy has also proposed a lease-to-own system (benchmark) |
| Arkright Estates | 26 bungalows | TBD | Aaron Tushabe | Discovery |
| Bugolobi Flats | Over 300 apartments | TBD | Aaron Tushabe | Discovery |
| Wandera Homes | 13 households | Nimrod Wandera | Aaron Tushabe | Discovery |
| Ntinda Flats | 30 apartments | John W. Matovu | Aaron Tushabe | Discovery |
| Innocent's Appartments (Serena heights owner) | 35 apartments | Davi Mute | Hillary Arinda | Discovery |
| Worship Harvest | Commercial facility, ~6.9 MWh/month (Commercial RPM) | Via Dansturn Kimbowa | Aaron Tushabe | Proposal (sent 6 Oct 2026) |
| Kampala Club | Members' club, Plot 8 Ternan Avenue, Nakasero. Grid plus generator today; consumption not yet known (Commercial RPM) | Michael Wamuwaya (GM); Lauben Ahimbisibwe (Hon. Secretary) | Aaron Tushabe; Dansturn Kimbowa (on site) | Discovery: intro email sent 5 Nov 2026 (Aaron is a member); meeting requested for Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 at the Club |
Macro outlook: shilling, rates and NFE (15 Oct 2026)
Macro outlook: shilling, interest rates and NFE (15 Oct 2026)
Asked by Aaron in the NFE leads chat. Facts are from public reporting found on 15 Oct 2026 (links at the end). Where sources disagree or I could not confirm, it is marked UNVERIFIED. NFE's own cost and funding numbers are not all known to this note; the "what we need" list at the end says which.
What happened
- 14 Oct, special MPC meeting: Bank of Uganda raised the Central Bank Rate from 9.75% to 12% (+225 bp), the first move after eight holds. (Aaron's chat said 9.5%; the reports say 9.75%.) Reasons given: shilling down about 12% this year, higher oil prices, strong dollar demand from fuel importers, foreign investors leaving government bonds.
- Shilling: weakest in 33 years, about 4,143 to 4,153 per US dollar on 12 to 13 Oct. It reportedly strengthened more than 2% after the decision, but the reports give different levels (UNVERIFIED which is right). It passed 4,000 on 5 Oct.
- Inflation: headline 3.7% (June); energy, fuel and utilities 11.9% year on year, diesel up 37%. BoU now expects headline inflation to average 7 to 7.5% over the next 12 months (core 5.5 to 6%) and cut 2026/27 growth to 6 to 6.5%.
- Credit: the cash reserve requirement rose from 11% to 13.5% on 24 Sep, so banks have less to lend. In August, shilling loans averaged 17.9% and foreign-currency loans 7.5% (before the hike). Post-hike lending rates: not found.
- Electricity tariffs (ERA): Q4 2026 (Oct to Dec) appears unchanged from Q3 (domestic 779.4 UGX/kWh above the lifeline band, commercial 562.1). UNVERIFIED against the ERA PDF. ERA cited a 4.22% shilling depreciation when it held Q3.
How it reaches NFE
| Channel | Direction | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Hardware (inverters, batteries, panels, meters, Pis) | Cost up | Priced off the dollar. Local quotes follow the shilling within weeks. |
| Solar quote (Mudde, UGX 4,426,000 materials) | Cost up | About USD 1,067 at 4,150. See table below. |
| Customer tariff in MGM | Lagged support | MGM bands mirror ERA's domestic tariff (250 / 779.4 / 412 / 779.4 UGX/kWh, UGX 7,320 service charge, 18% VAT). ERA reviews quarterly and has named the exchange rate as an input, so retail prices follow the dollar with about one quarter of delay. |
| Arbitrage (peak 666.5 vs off-peak 429.7 UGX/kWh, Code 10.2) | Mild support | The saving is set in shillings, so it grows only if ERA raises tariffs. Today about 189 UGX per shifted kWh, roughly UGX 35,000 a month on one site at 6 kWh a night. Small against hardware costs. |
| Borrowing | Cost up | CBR at 12% points to higher shilling loan rates (assumption: not yet seen). Dollar loans look cheaper (7.5%) but turn expensive if the shilling keeps falling. |
| Customers (Sezibwa households) | Risk | Fuel and food inflation cuts what households can spend; September's pilot bill was UGX 552,197 for 8 households, so a few late payers matter. |
| Cloud and SaaS (Hetzner in EUR, Claude Team, API credits) | Cost up, small | Charged in foreign currency. The Claude credits (USD 1,000) and any USD grant gain value in shillings. |
| Grid reliability | Possible risk | Fuel cost and import pressure can strain UEDCL. Our 20:00 to 22:30 L3 sag pattern is already grid-side. |
Sensitivity: the Mudde solar materials quote (UGX 4,426,000 at 4,150/USD)
| UGX per USD | Materials cost (UGX) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 3,950 | 4,212,700 | -5% |
| 4,150 | 4,426,000 | base |
| 4,500 | 4,799,300 | +8% |
| 4,800 | 5,119,200 | +16% |
| 5,000 | 5,332,500 | +20% |
The quote is valid to about 22 Oct. Labour is extra and local (Green Volta).
What I would do
- Decide the solar order before the quote lapses (about 22 Oct) or ask Mudde to hold the price in writing. Every 5% shilling move is about UGX 220,000 on materials.
- Buy hardware earlier rather than later for anything already planned (spare meters, Pis, a second inverter), while the shilling is firmer after the hike.
- Keep any USD funding in USD (grant, credits) until a shilling cost needs paying.
- Keep customer tariffs on the ERA bands and re-read the ERA schedule every quarter (next: the Q1 2027 schedule, due about the end of December).
- Avoid new shilling debt at the current rates unless the project pays back well inside a year; compare with a dollar-linked option only if income is dollar-linked.
- Watch the cash side of billing: track unpaid bills in MGM monthly, because households are the first to feel inflation.
What we need to finish this properly
- The next hardware order (items, supplier currency, timing) and any quotes in USD.
- How the grant (about USD 3,000) is held and when it is spent.
- Any loan or financing plan for the next site.
- Whether solar panels, inverters and batteries now carry import duty or VAT: not found in the 2026/27 budget reports (UNVERIFIED). Check URA and EAC tariff lines 8541, 8504 and 8507.
- Post-hike commercial lending rates (next BoU Financial Stability or bank rate releases).
Sources
- Pulse Uganda: Bank of Uganda raises CBR to 12% (14 Oct 2026)
- bne IntelliNews: Uganda central bank raises rate to 12% at emergency meeting as shilling hits record lows
- Investing.com: Uganda central bank raises rates to 12% to support shilling
- UBC: Bank of Uganda raises interest rate to 12% as inflation and shilling pressures mount (14 Oct 2026)
- Pulse Uganda: Uganda shilling falls to lowest level in 33 years
- UG Business: Bank lending grows at its fastest rate since 2015
- Monitor: High fuel prices push Uganda's inflation to 3.7 per cent
- ERA: Approves electricity tariffs for the third quarter of 2026; Monitor and Watchdog Uganda on Q4 2026 tariffs
- KPMG and Forvis Mazars: Uganda Budget Brief 2026/27
Sawa Energy's Bellavista proposal (competitor benchmark)
What Sawa Energy offered Bellavista Apartments (Pearl Marina) for solar and storage, and what NFE took from it for the Commercial RPM. Bellavista is also in NFE's pipeline (see Potential Customers). Based on Sawa's proposal document "Bellavista (576kW) Proposal_Lease to Own_Battery", reviewed 18 Sep 2026. Owner: Aaron Tushabe.
Sawa's offer
| Item | Sawa's Bellavista proposal |
|---|---|
| Solar | 576 kWp |
| Battery | 691 kWh (about 2 hours) |
| Ground area | 3,200 m² |
| Stated system value | UGX 4.762 billion |
| Upfront cost to the customer | None |
| Monthly lease | USD 17,038 (operating lease USD 13,068 + O&M USD 3,970) |
| Term | 25 years |
| Security deposit | 3 months (USD 51,113) |
| Ownership | Optional purchase from year 3 at a declining, predefined price; transfer for USD 1 after 25 years |
| Share of consumption covered | 43% overall; 85% of daytime consumption |
| Included | Monitoring, maintenance, insurance, warranty management, panel washing and repairs, with inverter replacement about every 7 years and battery replacement about every 10 years ("set it and forget it") |
| Sizing | Subject to validation by logging actual consumption |
The lease comes to about USD 204,000 a year, or about USD 5.1m over 25 years before escalation or discounting. Bellavista pays it whether it uses a little electricity or a lot.
How it compares with a Commercial RPM
| Sawa (lease-to-own) | NFE Commercial RPM | |
|---|---|---|
| Customer pays for | Equipment: a fixed monthly lease | Electricity used, per kWh at the utility tariff, with a 50% minimum |
| Who carries volume risk | The customer | Mostly NFE, above the 50% floor |
| Reliability | Comes with the equipment | Part of the service and included in the price |
| Proposal is built around | The asset (kWp, kWh, system value) | The service (the power stays on at the same price) |
| Capital | The full system up front | In phases: measure first, then build what the data supports |
| Ownership | From year 3; USD 1 at year 25 | Optional purchase from year 5 |
What NFE adopted
- "Set it and forget it" risk allocation. NFE owns, monitors, maintains, repairs, insures and replaces the equipment for as long as it runs the system, all covered by the energy price.
- A predefined buyout schedule agreed at signing, so the customer always has a path to ownership at a known price.
- An onboarding sequence: data logging → credit assessment → site assessment → final design → contract → deployment. Sawa asks for corporate documents, utility bills or audited statements, credit references and site or roof information.
What NFE does differently, on purpose
- Bills for energy, not for equipment.
- Leads proposals with the service, with the hardware list secondary.
- Deploys capital in phases as consumption is proven, rather than financing the whole system on day one.
UMEME → UEDCL transition: market impact
Summary
UEDCL (government-owned) has taken over national electricity distribution from UMEME (private). Since then, people have been complaining publicly about a sharp drop in service. This page records what we know and what it means for NFE.
What's being said
A widely read X post by Ronald Amanyire (19 Oct 2026, ~12.8K views) argues that the decline comes from incentives and institutional culture, not infrastructure. In his view a state entity has less pressure to perform, and patronage and weak teamwork make it worse. He also points out that UEDCL's remote service areas were already struggling before the handover. His conclusion is that customers judge a distributor only on reliability. Source
What it means for NFE
- Grid reliability is a live concern for customers, so energy independence and backup power are timely conversations.
- The strongest prospects are commercial and institutional customers on the main grid: health, cold chain, hospitality, manufacturing, telecom/offices and schools.
- Pitch reliability and fault response, not just equipment.
- Remote and off-grid sites support mini-grid and standalone system work.
Caveats
This is based on opinion, not outage data. Add ERA/UEDCL figures and customer evidence here as we collect them.
Owner: Aaron Tushabe · Last reviewed: 28 Oct 2026
Tracking prospects in ERPNext CRM
Since 5 November 2026, NFE tracks prospective customers in ERPNext's CRM, not in the Library's Potential Customers table. This page explains how we record a prospect, which sales stage and probability to use, and how to keep the pipeline current. Owner: Aaron Tushabe.
Where to look
- The pipeline: Opportunities, one per deal, with its stage, probability and owner.
- Organisations: Prospects. People: Leads.
- Reports: Sales Pipeline Analytics and Opportunity Summary by Sales Stage. Both count Opportunities only, which is why every prospect gets one.
Access: Aaron, Dansturn and Hillary have Sales User and Sales Manager (granted 5 November 2026; see the ERPNext access review addendum). Anyone else who needs the CRM asks Aaron.
How we record a prospect
| ERPNext record | What it holds | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Prospect | The organisation or site. One per prospective customer | Example Heights Apartments |
| Lead | A named person there, added to the Prospect's Leads table | Jane Example (Property Manager) |
| Contact | Made automatically from each Lead | Jane Example |
| Opportunity | The deal, raised from the Prospect | CRM-OPP-2026-NNNNN |
Adding a new prospect
- Prospect. Give the organisation name, Customer Group (Commercial; Non Profit for churches and NGOs; Government), Territory Uganda, Industry (Real Estate for housing), and Prospect Owner, the NFE person leading it. On the Notes tab, add the size (apartments, households or MWh/month), how we met them, and a link to any Library page.
- Leads. Make a Lead for each named person (first and last name, organisation, job title, Lead Owner), then add it to the Prospect's Leads table. Skip this step until you have a name.
- Opportunity. On the Prospect, use Create → Opportunity. Set Opportunity Type Sales, the Sales Stage and Probability from the table below, the Opportunity Owner, and the Contact Person if there is one. Add the amount and expected closing date once you know them.
Always set Probability. A new Opportunity starts at 100%, which inflates the pipeline.
Claude can do all three steps with the erpnext-api skill, using your own key, so you show as the owner (see Using ERPNext with Claude). Don't create CRM records through mcphub, which records them as Administrator's.
Sales stages and probabilities
| Where the deal is | Sales Stage | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| We know of the site but haven't reached anyone yet | Prospecting | 10% |
| In conversation with a named contact; screening the site (for Commercial RPMs, see Assessing a Commercial RPM lead) | Qualification | 20% |
| Proposal sent | Proposal/Price Quote | 40% |
| Negotiating terms | Negotiation/Review | 60% |
We don't use ERPNext's other stages (Needs Analysis, Value Proposition, Identifying Decision Makers, Perception Analysis).
Keeping it current
- After every meeting, call or email that moves a deal: add a note on the Opportunity's Notes tab, and update its Sales Stage and Probability.
- Leave Status at Open while a deal is live. ERPNext closes Opportunities left at Replied for 15 days (CRM Settings).
- Lost: set Status to Lost. ERPNext asks for a reason, and the list starts empty, so add one if none fits (for example "Chose a competitor").
- Paused: use Close on the Opportunity, and Reopen when talks restart.
- Won: tell Aaron. We haven't yet decided how a won deal becomes an ERPNext Customer, since NFE's customers aren't in ERPNext yet.
- Keep the long-form story (site details, economics, history) on the customer's Library page, as for Worship Harvest, and link it from the Prospect's notes.
Not in the CRM
- Sezibwa Homes is an operating customer, not a prospect.
- Arkright Estates was left out when the list moved to ERPNext on 5 November 2026.
Last reviewed 5 November 2026 by Aaron Tushabe.