Financial Model Game plan - Q2

🎯 The 3 Goals 

 

 

 

 

 Microgrid unit economics model 

 

 

 Fundraising narrative 

 

 

 Stress test your monetization models (Owned vs Partner) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 🧭 Phase 1 (Week 1–2): Build Financial Clarity (Foundation) 

 

 

 

 1) Microgrid Unit Economics Model 

 

 

 

 What you’re building 

 

 

 A per-site financial model that answers: 

 

 “If we deploy one microgrid, does it make money?” 

 

 

 

 

 Step 1: Define core inputs 

 

 

 Start simple (don’t overcomplicate): 

 

 

 Costs (CapEx) 

 

 

 

 

 Battery (e.g., 10kWh setup) 

 

 

 Inverter 

 

 

 Installation (+20%) 

 

 

 Metering hardware 

 

 

 Any fixed setup costs 

 

 

 

 

 

 Revenue 

 

 

 

 

 Avg monthly revenue per household 

 

 

 Number of households (e.g., 10 → 100 → 360) 

 

 

 Tariff (or effective price per kWh) 

 

 

 

 

 

 Operating costs (OpEx) 

 

 

 

 

 Maintenance 

 

 

 Staff/ops allocation 

 

 

 Platform/software (NFE OS) 

 

 

 Losses / non-payment buffer 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Step 2: Build outputs 

 

 

 You want 5 key metrics: 

 

 

 

 Monthly revenue per site 

 

 

 Monthly profit 

 

 

 Payback period (months) 

 

 

 Gross margin (%) 

 

 

 Cash flow over time 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Step 3: Answer key questions 

 

 

 

 

 How long to recover CapEx? 

 

 

 What happens if: 

   

 

 

 Usage drops 20%? 

 

 

 Costs increase 15%? 

 

 

   

 

 

 What is your minimum viable scale per site ? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Deliverable 

 

 

 👉 A simple Google Sheet model (I can help you structure this next) 

 

 

 

 

 🧭 Phase 2 (Week 2–3): Stress Test Your Two Models 

 

 

 Now apply the model to your two strategies: 

 

 

 

 

 Model A: NFE-Owned Microgrid 

 

 

 

 What to evaluate 

 

 

 

 

 Total capital required per site 

 

 

 Revenue collected directly 

 

 

 Payback period 

 

 

 Cash constraints (how many sites you can deploy) 

 

 

 

 

 

 Key insight you want: 

 

 

 “How fast can we scale before we run out of cash?” 

 

 

 

 

 Model B: Partner-Owned Microgrid 

 

 

 

 What to evaluate 

 

 

 

 

 Your revenue: 

   

 

 

 Flat fee per customer 

 

 

 +5% of electricity sales 

 

 

   

 

 

 Your costs: 

   

 

 

 Ops + maintenance 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 Key insight: 

 

 

 “Is this a high-margin, low-capex business?” 

 

 

 

 

 Compare side-by-side 

 

 

 

 

 

 Metric 

 

 

 NFE-Owned 

 

 

 Partner Model 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Capital required 

 

 

 High 

 

 

 Low 

 

 

 

 

 Margin 

 

 

 High (long-term) 

 

 

 Lower but steady 

 

 

 

 

 Risk 

 

 

 Higher 

 

 

 Lower 

 

 

 

 

 Speed of scale 

 

 

 Slower 

 

 

 Faster 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Strategic output 

 

 

 You should be able to say: 

 

 

 

 “We lead with Partner model to scale fast” 

 

 

 or 

 

 

 “We prioritize Owned model for long-term value” 

 

 

 

 

 👉 This becomes core to your pitch 

 

 

 

 

 🧭 Phase 3 (Week 3–4): Build Your Fundraising Narrative 

 

 

 Now turn your numbers into a story investors understand 

 

 

 

 

 1) Problem (you already do this well) 

 

 

 

 

 Unreliable grids 

 

 

 Diesel backup risks 

 

 

 Growing urban demand 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 2) Solution (tighten this) 

 

 

 

 

 “Community microgrids that turn backup power into primary infrastructure” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 3) Business Model (now backed by numbers) 

 

 

 Use your model to clearly show: 

 

 

 

 Revenue per site 

 

 

 Margin 

 

 

 Payback 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 4) Traction 

 

 

 

 

 Pilot (10 homes) 

 

 

 Phase 2 (100 homes) 

 

 

 Pipeline (360 apartments) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 5) Scaling Strategy (THIS is key) 

 

 

 From your analysis: 

 

 Example: 

 

 

 

 Phase 1: Pilot + validate 

 

 

 Phase 2: Scale via partner model 

 

 

 Phase 3: Selectively own high-value sites 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 6) Use of funds 

 

 

 Your model should let you say: 

 

 

 

 “$300K deploys X sites” 

 

 

 “Each site generates $Y/month” 

 

 

 “Break-even in Z months” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Deliverable 

 

 

 👉 A clean 8–10 slide pitch (or 1–2 page memo) 

 

 

 

 

 🧭 Phase 4 (Week 4–6): Add Financial Discipline 

 

 

 This replaces what a CFO would start doing. 

 

 

 

 

 1) Monthly financial tracking 

 

 

 Track: 

 

 

 

 Revenue per site 

 

 

 Cost per site 

 

 

 Collection rates 

 

 

 Downtime 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 2) Define 5 core KPIs 

 

 

 For NFE, I’d suggest: 

 

 

 

 Revenue per customer 

 

 

 Cost per customer 

 

 

 Payback period per site 

 

 

 System uptime (%) 

 

 

 Collection efficiency (%) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 3) Cash planning (critical) 

 

 

 Build a simple view: 

 

 

 

 Cash today 

 

 

 Monthly burn 

 

 

 Months of runway 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ⚠️ Critical mindset shift 

 

 You’re moving from: 

 

 “We are building microgrids” 

 

 to: 

 

 “We are deploying capital into energy assets that must return money” 

 

 That shift is what investors care about. 

 

 

 

 

 🧩 How this all connects 

 

 

 

 

 Unit economics → proves viability 

 

 

 Model comparison → defines strategy 

 

 

 Narrative → unlocks capital 

 

 

 Tracking → sustains growth